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Social Psychology & Human Nature Brief (2nd, 11) by Baumeister, Roy F - Bushman, Brad J [Hardcover (2010)]

• Sales Rank: #4663905 in Books
• Published on: 2010
• Binding: Hardcover

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Train your brain to be a real contrarian and outsmart the crowd

Beat the Crowd is the real contrarian's guide to investing, with comprehensive explanations of how a true contrarian investor thinks and acts―and why it works more often than not. Bestselling author Ken Fisher breaks down the myths and cuts through the noise to present a clear, unvarnished view of timeless market realities. He also points out the ways in which a contrarian approach to investing will outsmart the herd. In true Ken Fisher style, the book explains why the crowd often goes astray―and how you can stay on track.

Contrarians understand how headlines really affect the market and which noise and fads they should tune out. Beat the Crowd is a primer to the contrarian strategy, teaching listeners simple tricks to think differently and get it right more often than not.

• Discover the limits of forecasting and how far ahead you should look
• Learn why political controversy matters less the louder it gets
• Resurrect long-forgotten, timeless tricks and truths in markets
• Find out how the contrarian approach makes you right more often than wrong

A successful investment strategy requires information, preparation, a little bit of brainpower, and a larger bit of luck. Pursuit of the mythical perfect strategy frequently lands folks in a cacophony of talking heads and 24-hour noise, but Beat the Crowd cuts through the mental clutter and collects the pristine pieces of actual value into a tactical approach based on going against the grain.

• Sales Rank: #2465845 in Books
• Published on: 2015-11-03
• Formats: Audiobook, MP3 Audio, Unabridged
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 6.75" h x .50" w x 5.25" l, .16 pounds
• Running time: 9 Hours
• Binding: MP3 CD

Review

“..a characteristically lively read….a good holiday read for any investor who suspects they may be stuck in their ways and in need of new insights” (Money Observer, July 2015)

From the Inside Flap

Mainstream investors are wrong more often than right. Most folks intuitively know this, and statistics and studies back it up. How can you buck the trend and be right more often than wrong?

Many believe doing the opposite of everyone else is the key to avoiding the herd's faulty investment decisions. Wall Street defines contrarian investing as betting the opposite of the crowd. Problem is, stocks often don't do the opposite of what most folks expect! Those who bet on the opposite, thinking it makes them a contrarian, behave as crowd-like as the crowd they try to game! If the herd thinks stocks will rise 10%, the anti-herders bet they'll fall—but markets could also skyrocket or zigzag sideways. In Beat the Crowd, bestselling author Ken Fisher shows you how to look beyond both crowds and find real contrarian opportunities that pay.

Being a contrarian simply means thinking independently. Not getting caught up in media hype and endless debate over whether Thing X is good or bad for stocks. Looking for things everyone misses. Thinking differently than the crowd, but not necessarily opposite! Beat the Crowd helps you filter the noise, test rules of thumb, shatter media myths and avoid common pitfalls.

If you're tired of media chatter and getting burned by consensus wisdom, this book is for you. With his signature style, Ken dispels common viewpoints and knocks age-old "rules" on their head. You'll learn how to separate what's important from what isn't, think outside the investing canon, find the "elephant in the room" and out-invest the herd.

From the Back Cover

A STRAIGHTFORWARD GUIDE TO THINK-FORYOURSELF INVESTING FROM NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLING AUTHOR KEN FISHER

Are you tired of scouring financial headlines for actual wisdom—and coming up empty? Are you tired of nonstop media hype? Do you want to break free from the pack, think differently and outsmart the crowd?If so, this book is for you.

Contrarian investing isn't about being a bull when others are bearish, or vice versa. It's about independent thinking. Cutting through the hype to see what others don't see. Using simple logic to dispel media myths. Not being blinded by opinions, rules of thumb or consensus viewpoints. In Beat the Crowd you'll learn how to separate hype from reality to uncover lucrative tactics few others talk about.

Investing success isn't about perfection. It's about simply being right more often than not. Tuning out the noise and seeing the world differently than the masses will help you achieve this, and you don't need rigorous academic training to learn how. Beat the Crowd will teach you how, using the same methods Ken Fisher has employed over four decades of money management. Read this book to discover what moves markets, what doesn't, and where you can find real investment wisdom.

Most helpful customer reviews

32 of 33 people found the following review helpful.
Spotting a Downturn in the Stock Market in Time
By laurens van den muyzenberg
If you are an active investor you will find this a fascinating and useful book. It teaches you how to spot when a bull market will become a bear market in time. That is get out before the decline. Fischer explains in great detail why the majority of investors gets out too early before the bull market has peaked or too late when a bull market has already for a considerable period changed to a bear market. He shows how taking the Leading Economic Indicator, the LEI, seriously is the right way.

Important reasons why investors get the timing wrong are lack of discipline and ignorance in the sense of wrong concepts. Discipline refers especially to not selling unnecessarily. Shares go up and down. Most investors when a position in a portfolio goes down consider selling and replacing it by a winner. They consider a small loss far more important than a large gain. This is behavior based on the past of what has already happened. Fischer points out that what matters is what is expected to happen in the next 30 months.

Another important factor is the media that write about the stock market. People are more interested in bad news than good news, and therefore the majority of articles are written about short-term disappointments and negative developments further in the future than 30 months. His definite view is that both short-term opinions and extrapolations of the past and past 30 months predictions are useless for predicting changes from bull to bear and vice versa.

Fischer points to more than thirty widely held views he considers wrong. Some examples. A high Price Earnings ratio (PE) has no validity in predicting a better or worse development than a low PE. Small companies do not have a superior long-term performance than large ones. The increase from long-term interest rates does not lead to a change in a bull market. Wars do not influence the stock market other than of the magnitude such as World War II. Fisher presents straightforward statistical proofs. He puts these concepts to tests to determine if these widely held view correspond to what happened in reality. It is necessary to look at a complete picture; there are always examples where these factors appeared to be right, but they are far fewer than when proven wrong. For learning to spot in time approaching bears and bulls this book is first class, five stars.

Fisher frequently states that he is not a sociologist but nevertheless holds very negative opinions about politicians. Many people will have different views. His negative views of political leaders are so strong that they even get in the way of his statistical proofs. For example he states on page 132 that in 1938 the GDP started to increase when Franklin Roosevelt was president and on page 143 that a bear market reigned from 1934 to 1942. The reality is that already in 1934, FDR's second year in office, GDP increased with 10.8%. He states about the ACA on page 152 that the uninsured were reduced with between 7 to 10 million and on page 154 only with 1.1% which is only 3.5 million or half.

Fisher as a non-sociologist has very definite opinions on government. He sometimes creates the impression that the kind of policies that President Hoover pursued most of the time of non-interference in the economy is the only right policy and political action. I nevertheless also enjoyed this part as he does also make thought-provoking comments on political action.

17 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
Helped me rethink my investment strategy
By P. Dayton
Just finished up with this book last night, and I'm glad I found it. I've dabbled on and off with investments over the years, with streaks of success and patches of rockiness. This book helped me to rethink some of my basic approaches to my portfolio, and in fact I'm probably going to look at my investments this weekend and make some changes based on what I've learned. In particular, I've found that I'm paying too much attention to short-term news and letting it make me either too excited or too scared. The funny thing is that I kind of already knew that about myself, and often times I would make a change knowing that I probably shouldn't. Reading through this book has affirmed that I should stick more to fundamentals and not worry so much about what I read in the paper or see on TV.

The book itself is an easy read and only took me two days to finish. It's also written in a way that seems easy to understand even for someone who doesn't have a background in investing or know all the technical jargon. I also like that there are a lot of charts and other graphics to visualize the points being made. I always find it easier to see a concept displayed in a graph so that was a big help for me.

Would definitely recommend this book for anyone managing their own investments or just interested in how it works.

19 of 22 people found the following review helpful.
Not one of Fishers best efforts
By Pete
Ken Fisher is a good writer I have read about 5 of his 10 previous books , plus his Forbes articles for many years. Phil Fischer ( his father ) was a brilliant thinker and investor , Ken has obviously got that gene.

If you have read Fisher's stuff and other similar thinking investment writers , the book does not offer much that is new. If you are looking for a book that is going to be the definitive guide on how to find the next great investments this is not the book for you. ( I don't think that exists ).

This book might help you become a better " critical thinker " regarding your investment decisions.

I gave this only three stars , not because it is bad book or promotes investing philosophies that I do not agree with , but because I think Fisher could have written a better book, he should have stopped at 10.

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Praise for Valuation for Mergers, Buyouts, and Restructuring

"Enrique Arzac has provided an excellent analytical framework for the LBO business."--William T. Comfort, Chairman, Citigroup Venture Capital

"Enrique Arzac has created a masterpiece--his work combines the theoretical with the practical. He has created an invaluable reference guide that is thoughtful, complete and very user friendly. He provides insight into the theory behind core valuation, LBO's, and options pricing, which creates the foundation for mergers, buyouts and restructuring. In addition to the theoretical, he provides practical insight into deal structuring and deal dynamics. His work should be standard material for all incoming associates."--James P. McVeigh, Managing Director, Corporate & Investment Banking, Banc of America Securities

"This first-rate book of applied financial theory provides the tools for financial institutions and capital market participants seeking a methodology for comparing, contrasting, and evaluating investment opportunities and options. By inc orporating over 30 years of research, teaching, and practical experience, Professor Arzac has created a text that us not only timely, but timeless in its usefulness to anyone interested in learning the applications of financial theory for the best and most useful allocation of the scarcest economic resource in the world--capital."--William W. Priest, Co-Managing Partner, Steinberg, Priest and Sloane Capital Management and Former Chairman and CEO of Credit Suisse Asset Management

"There are two important aspects in graduate business education. The first is acquiring a thorough understanding of the theories of modern finance and the second is acquiring an appreciation for how these theories can be applied to important decisions. Enrique Arzac has taken on this task and made it a successful venture for readers of this book. Unlike other texts on valuation, he explains the reasons for the process and sequence that he recommends rather than just providing the ingredients and the recipe without explanation. This is a welcome addition to the literature in applied corporate finance."--Joel M. Stern, Managing Partner, Stern, Stewart & Co.

• Sales Rank: #860778 in Books
• Published on: 2007-11-09
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 10.10" h x 1.00" w x 7.20" l, 1.80 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 480 pages

Review
“Enrique Arzac has provided an excellent analytical framework for the LBO business.” —William T. Comfort, Chairman, Citigroup Venture Capital

"Enrique Arzac has created a masterpiece—his work combines the theoretical with the practical. He has created an invaluable reference guide that is thoughtful, complete and very user friendly.... His work should be standard material for all incoming associates.” —James P. McVeigh, Managing Director, Corporate & Investment Banking, Banc of America Securities

“By incorporating over 30 years of research, teaching, and practical experience, Professor Arzac has created a text that is not only timely, but timeless in its usefulness to anyone interested in learning the applications of financial theory for the best and most useful allocation of the scarcest economic resource in the world—capital.”—William W. Priest, Co-Managing Partner, Steinberg, Priest and Sloane Capital Management, Former Chairman and CEO of Credit Suisse Asset Mana gement

"Unlike other texts on valuation, [Arzac] explains the reasons for the process and sequence that he recommends rather than just providing the ingredients and the recipe without explanation. This is a welcome addition to the literature in applied corporate finance." —Joel M. Stern, Managing Partner, Stern, Stewart & Co.

From the Inside Flap
When should you acquire a target or enter a new business? How do you go about structuring and valuing leveraged buyout transactions? What do you do id the application of the weighted average cost of capital approach is not correct?

Answers to these commonly encountered valuation problems and more are given right here in this complete valuation toolkit for mergers, buyouts, and restructuring.

Enrique Arzac, an internationally recognized authority on the subject, provides an up-to-date, comprehensive synthesis of current valuation theory and practice, including free cash flow valuation, financing and valuation of leveraged buyouts, real option analysis for entry and exit decisions, contract design to resolve disagreements about value, and the valuation of special offer structures.

Keep up-to-date with the latest thinking on valuation for mergers and acquisitions
Enrique Arzac applies the latest academic thinking to mergers, buyouts, and restructuring, and blends it with his own practical approach to valuation developed over years of consulting.

Apply practical valuation procedures to a variety of situations
You’ll learn how to value stand-alone companies and business units, merged firms, foreign firms in developed or emerging markets, troubled-company restructuring, and more.

Learn how to use expert analysis tools
The book provides the essential analysis tools for estimating the cost of capital for public and private companies, performing discounted cash flow valuation, estimating and applying valuation multiples, estimating sustainable debt, and much more.

Save time modeling transactions with professional-grade software
The CD included with this book contains DealModeler and Valuation Aids software. DealModeler is integrated modeling software for preparing pro-forma financial statements and valuing mergers, acquisitions, and leveraged buyouts, similar to those used by investment bankers and appraisal professionals. Valuation Aids software is designed to help you perform specialized computations, such as estimating the equity premium and valuing financial and real options.

From the Back Cover
Praise for Valuation for Mergers, Buyouts, and Restructuring

“Enrique Arzac has provided an excellent analytical framework for the LBO business.”—William T. Comfort, Chairman, Citigroup Venture Capital

“Enrique Arzac has created a masterpiece—his work combines the theoretical with the practical. He has created an invaluable reference guide that is thoughtful, complete and very user friendly. He provides insight into the theory behind core valuation, LBO’s, and options pricing, which creates the foundation for mergers, buyouts and restructuring. In addition to the theoretical, he provides practical insight into deal structuring and deal dynamics. His work should be standard material for all incoming associates.”—James P. McVeigh, Managing Director, Corporate & Investment Banking, Banc of America Securities

“This first-rate book of applied financial theory provides the tools for financial institutions and capital market participants seeking a methodology for comparing, contrasting, and evaluating investment opportunities and options. By incorporating over 30 years of research, teaching, and practical experience, Professor Arzac has created a text that us not only timely, but timeless in its usefulness to anyone interested in learning the applications of financial theory for the best and most useful allocation of the scarcest economic resource in the world—capital.”—William W. Priest, Co-Managing Partner, Steinberg, Priest and Sloane Capital Management and Former Chairman and CEO of Credit Suisse Asset Management

“There are two important aspects in graduate business education. The first is acquiring a thorough understanding of the theories of modern finance and the second is acquiring an appreciation for how these theories can be applied to important decisions. Enrique Arzac has taken on this task and made it a successful venture for readers of this book. Unlike other texts on valuation, he explains the reasons for the process and sequence that he recommends rather than just providing the ingredients and the recipe without explanation. This is a welcome addition to the literature in applied corporate finance.”—Joel M. Stern, Managing Partner, Stern, Stewart & Co.

Most helpful customer reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Absolutely fantastic
By Ani
This book has a wealth of solid technical material for corporate finance. Very useful for understanding the logic behind the valuation and modeling that most investment bankers take for granted. Although most bankers will never make use of some technical details, the framework is essential.

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Too many errors
By eric
I bought this book for my last M&A class, and as I am going through the book now, I find it to be riddled with computational errors. Why is that so? Shouldn't there be editors to check for these sorts of simple mistakes? Within the first few chapters, some of the problems and examples given in the chapter have data that don't match up and can cause confusion for those who are using it. Other than that, this book seems like a good backup reference, but all the math errors really make this book seem very unprofessional.

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Seriously, buy the hardcover!
By DMS @ NYC
This book is the greatest book I have found on applied corporate finance. It has the equivalent of a standard Corporate Finance course in Chapter 2. The remaining chapters expand the theoretical financial valuation framework and then show students that terms, structure, probability, and the control premium are fare more valuable insights than knowing WACC to one more decimal place.

If you buy it, buy the hardcover, you'll refer to its insights often.

See all 5 customer reviews...

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What's Behind the Ink?, by William Sudduth

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An in-dept look at the spiritual aspects of tattooing, piercing and other fads from a Christian perspective. Pagan and demonic activities and origins are thouroughly and convincingly exposed. Lack of knowledge need not be an excuse any longer

• Sales Rank: #1014526 in Books
• Published on: 2004-12-12
• Released on: 2004-12-12
• Number of items: 1
• Binding: Paperback
• 80 pages

Review
Bill Sudduth has done us all a great service in exposing what is behind tattoo and body piercing activities. -- Doris Wagner, Executive Vice President, Global Harvest Ministries

This book is a must read!! -- Richard Crisco, Senior Pastor, Rochester First Assembly of God

Most helpful customer reviews

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
Eye Opener!
By livingvineyard
Bill Saddoth research is a clear and informative. I have lots of friend that have "inked" their bodies and I am able to see the stronghold formed. I felt the need to learn what this is all about. I was amazed and my eye opened to see the strategy of the enemy toward our society.
Thank you so much for this book, Pasotr Bill S.

Livingvineyard!

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Informative but missing the most important part
By HonestConsumer
A quick read. Very interesting. I appreciate the valuable research and compilation of materials. At the end I found like there was a big hole where something is missing. The author did not provide an example prayer for those who have a tattoo or piercing who would like to pray over their tattoo & close any spiritual doors that may have been opened when they got the tattoo. He was so thorough in other aspects that I was surprised. I would have assigned 5 stars has this been done. I hope he does a follow up addendum that includes it. Also I went to his website & the info was not there.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Whats behind the ink
By L BC
I received the book, What's behind the ink very quickly. The book talks about the long History of tattooing. It was very interesting, as well as short and to the point!

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[I503.Ebook] PDF Download Jian, by Eric Van Lustbader

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Jian, by Eric Van Lustbader

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• Sales Rank: #2368012 in Books
• Published on: 1985
• Binding: Hardcover

Most helpful customer reviews

9 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
STUNNING!
By Mr N Forbes-warren
In this breathtaking spy thriller, Jake Maroc, a Chinese agent trained in various martial arts working for a clandestine US Government organisation called The Quarry, sets out to find the killers of his wife and stumbles across a Japanese Yakuza clan run by his enemy Nichiren, intent on taking over a valuable business in Hong Kong, while in Russia, the KGB shows an interest in the same project. So Maroc, ostracised by the US, seeks help from anyone possible, even the 14K Triads! The action scenes, involving different styles of martial arts and the latest in firearms are first-rate, the locations, especially Hong Kong, are well-researched and the plot is so elaborate and engaging that you can't see the meaning until the final pages, which keeps you guessing. One of Lustbader's very best!

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
The Best of Lustbader
By China Mike
Among the many novels that Lustbader has written, I appreciated this one the most. In typical Asian exoticism, Lustbader delivers well with this novel. There is a great deal of intrigue as the three main characters of the story are destined to encounter one another through intricate web of espionage and suspense involving the emergence of China as a modern power. In addition to the attack and counter-attacks of the two main protagonists in the story is the classic game of strategy Go or Weiqi as it is called among the Chinese. I found that Lustbaders use of the game was well placed and as it served as a metaphor for the combat which took place throughout the novel. The cultural depth which Lustbader writes is impressive indeed. He writes with one who has done his research especially in the area of Asian martial arts and eastern philosophy.

The book has several sexually graphic accounts and if one does not care for such content the book should be avoided or at least a skipping over of such passages is needed.

3 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Like a bowl of Suger Frosted Flakes
By Winslow
This was the second of the "9" Eric Lustbader books that I read , the first being The Kaisho. Yeah, I'm hooked. In this novel Eric captures the reader with this thought provoking journey of historic place and time, with the" Jian" Shi Zilin, wise, shrewd and crafty, who is forced to sacrifies his beloved family all for the good of his country China. Set in Hong Kong we see the rise of the Jian, the fight against Communism, and the heart of a man who know how to love, wife, lover, brother, family without perjudice . And although Nichiren (who tricks Jake's wife to going to Japan to hold her captive) and Jake Maroc are mortal enemies, the hatred that they feel for one another consumes and threatens to destroy them both, yet unbeknownest to each there is a blood bond that ties they together forever. Shi Zilin master of the ancient game of Wei Qi. The game of life, who will become Jian- one of Shi Zilin's sons must take his place for his time has come and he has run the good race. A must read for Lustbader fans

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[X262.Ebook] Download Purchasing and Supply Management, by Donald Dobler, LaMar Lee, David N. Burt

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This best-selling text's hallmark has always been its fundamental treatment of the basics. In the thorough revision the change of title reflects the fact that purchasing is a field in transition. In most industries it is evolving into purchasing and supply management. Major new areas in the 6th edition include global sourcing, supplier and supply chain management, the use of cross-functional teams in new product development, commodity management and sourcing, and early purchasing and supplier involvement in specifications development. New topics include total quality management, partnering and strategic alliances, and just-in-time purchasing and outsourcing developments.

• Sales Rank: #1561074 in Books
• Published on: 1995-12-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 1.57" h x 6.69" w x 9.45" l,
• Binding: Hardcover
• 864 pages

Most helpful customer reviews

24 of 26 people found the following review helpful.
The core Purchasing text that must be on your shelf.
By A Customer
This is the textbook that every Purchasing professional must have on the shelf. It is written by the gurus in the field that helped to define the profession and set standards by developing the professional certification requirements.
The book establishes common language to describe Purchasing core processes that are applicable across industry and organizational lines. Because of the common language it establishes it can be really helpfull for someone who has been in a single industry or organization for some time that wants to transition to another industry but only knows the terms from their previos field.
For example someone involved in government procurement wishing to transition to the private sector might find the book usefull. Furthermore, it is written in the same language as appears on the NAPM APP and CPM examinations.
I have used the book both in a Purchasing Masters Degree Program at St Marys College in California and also in a Purchasing Certificate Program offered by the University of Phoenix and the material and cases are always well received by the students. The cases in particular are good and provide a common ground for people who have used the book.
There are some other books out there and new gurus are emerging but for now this is still the best.
William J. Kohnen Instructor University of Phoenix

10 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
Good reference but outdated
By A Customer
My instructor at college who is on the Board of NAPM made this the class text. The book is obsolete from its discussion of technology in purchasing but otherwise is good. It emphasizes qualitative methods and is very soft on quantitative analysis of practical business problems. There is a shortage of case studies but overall this is a good book.Being useful to take the NAPM exam, NAPM has expanded some definitions in the book that are not commonly held in other college courses. For example, my instructor docked me 10 points on a question asking for the 4 elements of a contract,which are different from what commercial law and the UCC dictate. NAPM has redefined some terms so be wary.

5 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
Average, not great
By A Customer
At over $100 this is an expensive book. It has some good information, being useful for Modules 1& 2 of the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM) exams but is quite repetitive in its jargon. Much of what is discussed is generally known by anyone with any significant work experience. More calculations and hard data might be helpful. The book itself is of rugged construction and well made and of convenient size for portable reading.

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